Authored by Masanari Takada, Nomura Tokyo, “FOMO” in global and US equity: Market heading for a cooling-off period? US stock markets were closed on Friday, leaving CTAs and other speculative investors with little to do. We expect the sustainability of the long-running rally in US equities and global equities to be tested this week (starting 22 April). Market participants motivated by "FOMO" - the fear of missing out - seem to have already priced in various pieces of good news concerning US trade policy and the global economy that have yet to materialize. Of course, the market could continue to see support from hopes for forecast-beating US corporate earnings and chase-buying by CTAs, but if global stock market sentiment follows the typical historical pattern we have observed, we see a strong likelihood of market euphoria giving way to a cooling-off period at the end of April into the first half of May.
Fig. 1: Global equity market sentiment index since 2018 [Nomura estimates]
Note: The equity sentiment index is calculated by the Nomura Macro and Quant Strategy teams, based on a series of relevant market data. Source:
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